Posts have previously appeared on this blog critical of Congress’ failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform and critical of presidential candidates’ failure to meaningfully discuss this issue.  (Click here and here.)  On July 8 while addressing a major Hispanic group, both McCain and Obama weighed in.  But to what end?

McCain reminded the audience that he had supported last year’s failed comprehensive immigration reform bill.  He promised to enact some version of this legislation if elected but emphasized that the country’s borders would have to be secure first.  Obama expressed admiration for McCain’s support of the immigration bill, since he bucked his own party by taking his early stand.  Obama then criticized McCain for backing away from the bill once he began to pacify the anti-immigration Republican base during the primary.  Although also an early supporter of the reform bill and, like McCain, still a supporter, Obama has made it clear that immigration reform must include securing our borders.

While the two candidates will undoubtedly pick at each other about the issue, there’s little difference between what McCain and Obama believe about the immigration issue.  Both want to see immigration reform passed by Congress.  How badly they want it remains to be seen.  Immigration is a dicey issue.  It’s not strictly liberal-conservative, red-blue, Democratic-Republican.  Some present members of Congress will continue to oppose it.  It’s my guess that some new members of the next Congress will oppose it.  The next president will have to spend a fair amount of political capital to get immigration reform enacted.

Also, if McCain and Obama stick to their rhetoric that the borders must be secure before immigration reform can be had, then it’s unlikely to occur anyway.  We’ve proved again and again that we can’t keep illegals out.  They get jobs.  Some of them get caught and are deported.  Some aren’t and work illegally.  In order for reform to work, there must be something built in to deal with this imperfect situation.

My guess is that either McCain or Obama will work with Congress to pass something called immigration reform.  It’s likely to be a tepid attempt to deal with a complicated, controversial issue, which means that what the states have already started doing will carry the day, which means that immigration will remain a mess.  

The fact that McCain and Obama have started talking about the issue again doesn’t mean much from a substantive standpoint.  Both are simply courting the Hispanic vote right now and trying simultaneously to avoid alienating the anti-immigration vote.  Quite a high wire act.  It’ll be a while before we know whether their words are ultimately converted into action.